By Mark G. Mangie. Republicans need to come to terms with America’s changing demographics.
Election Day, 11/06/18, by any measure was a victory for the Republican Party. Although it lost control of the House of Representatives, its losses were below average for off year elections following the election of new President. More importantly, its control of the Senate was jacked up. Within that jackup, at least for this President, the opposition within the party will no longer be there after January. Those folks have been replaced by Trump supporters making his job of getting judicial and cabinet appointments much easier. That will have a major effect over the governance of the country, especially in the Department of Justice.
Notwithstanding, hidden in the election results is a major trap getting ready to close. Reliably Red States are turning purple; and it’s happening where it shouldn’t. Florida, Georgia, and Texas are fading in and out of red and inching towards blue. These Gubernatorial and Senate races, which ten years ago would have been shoe-ins, have gotten way too close for comfort. Republicans should take note.
The reason is simple: changing demographics. The Democratic Party, which has it wrong on so many issues, is right about one thing. People of color and immigrants, from both internal and external migrations, will have substantial influence over the future of this great nation. Their approach and ultimate conclusions may be wrong, but their foundation argument is correct.
Whether the Republicans like it of not, immigrants have been flooding into this country since the mid 1960’s. Both parties’ negligence and political greed have gotten us to this point where our immigration system is a complete and total disgrace. Yet neither party seems willing to fix it. How we got here and what current election results indicate today are irrelevant. The reality is what it is.
Here is the harsh situation for Republicans. Florida has always been a haven for immigrants be it from Cuba or Haiti. The latest has been from Puerto Rico. These folks are already Americans and have moved here after the destructive hurricane of a year ago. They can vote NOW. And they are voting Democratic. Add to the mix a fair amount of Central American immigrants as well as an influx of liberal folks from New York and New Jersey…Florida can turn blue easily and quickly.
Georgia is changing due to an influx of African Americans moving back to the south in a reverse migration from Midwest cities. Georgia has a strong, and getting stronger, African American middle and upper-middle class community who still identify with the bad old days and vote accordingly. It, too, can change to blue very quickly.
Finally, Texas. Texas gets it from all directions. Houston was the ultimate destination of a wave of economically disadvantaged folks after Katrina hit New Orleans, many of whom stayed. It is also a point of entry for many of the illegal immigrants streaming in from Central America. Finally, it is suffering from a phenomenon known as California-ization. These are lower to middle class people who are leaving California due to its skyrocketing cost of living…but bring political beliefs with them that allowed the problem to develop in California in the first place. The same has happened in Nevada, Arizona and Colorado.
Long term, I disagree with the Democratic conclusion that these folks will vote Democratic in perpetuity. I believe that ultimately, over two or three generations, people will vote on what is in their financial interest. Long term, that lies with the Republican Party. The problem is that short term, the problem is very real. The Democrats have forsaken its traditional working class, white middle class base to court and develop its relationship with these folks. It has fooled them into believing it has their best interest at heart. That may have been true 20 years ago, but now the Democratic Party is interested in one thing: implementing socialism and changing the fabric of the nation while setting themselves up as the ones will call the shots. If the Democratic Party succeeds in the short term, it will thwart what the natural conclusion would otherwise be in the long term.
The Republicans can complain about illegals from now until the cows come home. It won’t change the reality. While they are addressing the issues of how to stop further illegal immigration, they need to deal with what is already here, and begin to develop strategies and programs to assist these folks into integrating with American culture and understanding why capitalism is their best friend. Otherwise the real Blue Wave, internal and external migration, will wash Republicans away.